I, for one, believe that the two colts who are atop most analysts lists, War Pass and Pyro, are both pretenders... War Pass, while clearly the best 2-year-old, just doesn't have the look of a colt who will stretchout... His brilliance will eventually do him in, as I just cannot see him wiring the Derby at 1 1/4 miles... I do think he may be good enough to win one or two 1 1/8-mile Derbies or Triple Crown preps - just not the big Classic...

As for Pyro, he appears to be the 2008 version of Dollar Bill to me... I just don't feel like he is genuine enough or fast enough to beat the best of his generation... his style and distance capabilities will have him clunking up some board finishes in a lot of good races - just like he did when a well-beaten second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind War Pass - but I just don't think he'll ever be good enough to pass them all when it matters...

Personally, I think the following colts are some the real contenders based on what I've seen now four months out (taking 1 1/4 miles into consideration):

Cowboy Cal, Signature Move, Maimonides, Etched, Z Fortune, Majestic Warrior

Thoughts? 

 If you are going to talk Derby horses how can you leave off Into Mischief?  He is a grade one winner by Harlan's Holiday.

 Thoughts?

Incogneat_O:

 If you are going to talk Derby horses how can you leave off Into Mischief?  He is a grade one winner by Harlan's Holiday.

 Thoughts?

 Its tough to disagree with you judging by his dynamic win in the Grade 1 in California last time out... I just have a tough time getting excited over Polytrack form and how it will translate to the Churchill Downs maintrack on the first Saturday in May - and that simply stems from not understanding that yet with little data from past performances to work with.

Into Mischief is certainly a nice colt with just as much potential as any of the top Derby contenders, and we all know that his connections are second to none.

Team Hughes/Mandella also has a very nice 3yo colt named Kanan Dume, who I thought was one of the more impressive 2yos I saw last year in his limited action. He is an absolutely gorgeous son of Malibu Moon and he won his maiden race in his debut like a good thing. I'm excited to see him get back as a 3yo because he just might be the best one to sport the famous purple and orange silks in the future.  

Team Hughes and Mandella have a third interesting horse. Did you see a horse called Crown of Thorns break his maiden on January 1st? He looked like a machine and clearly has no distance limitations. His sire was a good 3 year old and I think he is one to watch.

I agree on Crown of Thorns too... those connections look loaded this year with nice 3yos

Personally, I think its a down year all around for 3yos, especially when talking those with classic-type pedigrees to be factors in the Triple Crown.. BUT I sure would like to be holding Mr. Hughes' hand right now over anyone elses

I agree on War Pass and Pyro...simply haven't seen enough of the other 3yos to settle on a clear front-runner at this time. Z Fortune looked good at Fair Grounds last time...Majestic Warrior seems like he could be the real deal. Haven't heard anything about his progress to this point.

Majestic Warrior has two works to this point at Payson for Mott, who claims he will have the horse ready for a return by some time in March.

The problem is his pair of published works were 4-furlong moves, so if he is truly around a half-mile fit right now at the end of January then he only has around 6 weeks or so to get in shape for 1 1/16-mile races such as the Louisiana Derby and Tampa Bay Derby...

That seems like a tall task off the shelf, so a second-level allowance at GP to get a race under his belt may be more practical - assuming he is around a half-mile fit and hasn't been training elsewhere with no published workouts...

I see Crown of Thorns is running this weekend at Santa Anita...I don't know what to make of any races run over that surface...but at least it will be good to see the son of Repent back in action for top connections.

Nice article about the race on the Bloodhorse website. Exciting to see the serious Derby preps begin. It should be a great February!!!!!

Coast Gaurd is also in the Robert Lewis with Crown of Thorns. I know the connections of the $300,000 son of Stormy Atlantic have always been high on him as well. It took him a few tries to break his maiden, but he appears to be moving forward...blinkers on this weekend.

Right now my personal list that I keep on my blog looks something like this:

•  Majestic Warrior
•  Court Vision
•  War Pass
•  Tale of Ekati
•  Pyro
•  Ready Set
•  El Gato Malo
•  Anak Nakal
•  Z Humor
•  Colonel John
•  Crown of Thorns

I keep tweaking it fairly often, but as of right now that's my top 10.  

It's very interesting to see the different selections we have amongst us.  I concur with the sentiment that this seems to be a down year in terms of top-flight looking talent, but perhaps this translates into a smashing betting campaign?   Obviously War Pass holds the key to that as he's all the papers talk about at the moment. 

That's a strong list kdawg.... nice!

It would be hard for me to add to that... I like Cowboy Cal and think he'll handle dirt without a problem, and Z Fortune's Lecomte win did enough for me to put him on the radar... other than that your list seems to have it covered pretty well in what is a down year for 3yos...

I think Etched is tremendously talented but I'd have liked him a lot better had McLaughlin kept him in the country this winter... going to Dubai we may never see him again...lol... he's nothing more than a huge mystery now   

Thanks, Geaux Tigahs.   Are you an LSU fan by chance?  I'm a Tide fan and diehard SEC fan overall.

I hope it's okay to do this, but if anyone is interested I just spent a great deal of time updating a new page on my block highlighting the road the Kentucky Derby.  

 http://theaspiringhorseplayer.wordpress.com/road-to-the-2008-kentucky-derby/

Crown of Thorns was ultra impressive over the Cushion. I understand fellow Florida-bred Check It Twice ( I believe he is another son of Repent) is working well alongside stablemate and classy veteran Magna Graduate. Pletcher might be looking at Fair Grounds preps now instead of previously mapped out Tampa route.

You got it, kdawg... avid ...our old coach is doing big things for you guys... I see Saban has the #1 ranked recruiting class in the nation... in 2-3 years the Tide will be a MAJOR force and i'm sure you and the whole Tide Nation cannot wait for that rise back to the top.